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El futuro del PSOE

Artículo preparado para Politikon

La severa derrota cosechada por el PSOE en las elecciones del pasado domingo ha sembrado el alarmismo entre muchos analistas políticos de nuestro país, quienes han creído ver en estos resultados un desmoronamiento del actual sistema de partidos. Mostrando mapas de una España teñida de azul, los analistas más osados han considerado incluso que el PSOE debe someterse a cambios de gran calado (refundaciones incluidas) para evitar un destino similar al del desaparecido PSI italiano.

A mi entender, un análisis sosegado no puede sostener estas tesis apocalípticas dignas de los noticiarios de Pedro Piqueras. A pesar de tratarse de unos resultados desastrosos para el PSOE, estos no sólo no suponen un cambio esencial de la estructura de competición partidista de nuestro país sino que probablemente representan el inicio de un ascenso progresivo del Partido Socialista.

Para entender qué futuro le depara al PSOE debemos primero analizar cuáles son los orígenes de su actual situación. En mi opinión, la crisis del PSOE proviene esencialmente de la confluencia de dos factores: (i) el perfil marcadamente ideológico que el Presidente Rodríguez Zapatero adoptó en la primera legislatura y (ii) el paquete de recortes sociales aprobado hace apenas un año.

En primer lugar, parte de la explicación de la situación precaria en la que se encuentra el PSOE se gestó durante la primera legislatura. Entonces, el gobierno socialista consideró oportuno llevar a cabo una agenda de marcado perfil ideológico. Probablemente, Rodríguez Zapatero fue, como dijo hace unas semanas Juan José Millás en El País, el primer presidente de izquierdas que ha tenido nuestro país. Quizás, se trate incluso del único presidente del Gobierno con un claro perfil ideológico, pues todos sus predecesores (José María Aznar incluido) se esforzaron en crearse una imagen moderada y de gestión.

Esta agenda marcadamente ideológica del Gobierno reportó al PSOE notables réditos electorales entre el electorado de izquierdas: consiguió eclipsar a IU y polarizar el hemiciclo en dos bandos (el PP contra todos). No obstante, la contrapartida que tuvo que pagar fue la pérdida de votantes moderados (de centro y sin ideología). Ante un gobierno con un claro perfil ideológico, muchos ciudadanos moderados consideraron pertinente pasarse a las filas del PP. En suma, mientras el PSOE ganaba terreno por la izquierda, el PP lo hacía por el centro y entre los votantes sin ideología.

Durante los primeros años de crisis económica, el PSOE pudo contener la pérdida de votantes moderados gracias a las ganancias conseguidas entre el electorado de izquierda. Pero, este diseño de alianzas se resquebrajó el 12 de mayo del 2010 cuando el Presidente anunció en el Congreso un duro paquete de recortes sociales. Desde entonces, los apoyos del PSOE entre la izquierda no han cesado de caer. En efecto, los recortes sociales han roto la vieja estrategia socialista de compensar los costes de la crisis económica con políticas sociales.

Ante este diagnóstico de la crisis socialista, ¿qué futuro le depara al PSOE en los próximos meses? A mi entender, ambos procesos pueden ser poco a poco corregidos sin excesivos sobresaltos y, por supuesto, sin tener que recurrir a refundaciones u otras ocurrencias desesperadas. Por un lado, el control del PP de la práctica totalidad de los gobiernos regionales puede, de hecho, representar una ventaja para el Gobierno. En los próximos meses el PP deberá empezar a gobernar en un contexto de dificultades económicas. La temporada de recortes (que estratégicamente se pospusieron hasta después de las elecciones) empieza en pocas semanas y, en esta ocasión, será el PP el responsable de llevar a cabo estas medidas tan impopulares. La imagen de unos gobiernos del PP recortando servicios como sanidad o educación puede representar un alivio para el PSOE. Sin duda, el Gobierno socialista agradecerá que de “Sólo ante el peligro” se pase a westerns más amables como “Dos cabalgan juntos”.

Por otro lado, el relevo de Rodríguez Zapatero también puede ser el inicio de la reconciliación con los votantes más moderados. Esto no dependerá tanto del candidato ganador como del proceso que se siga para su elección. Los candidatos mejor posicionados, Carme Chacón y Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, gozan de una valoración similar entre los votantes de centro y su popularidad entre los moderados es mayor que la de Rajoy i la Rodríguez Zapatero. Si bien ambos pueden representar alternativas atractivas para los votantes moderados, es importante que el PSOE evite a toda costa que la crispación y la confrontación marquen el proceso de primarias. Es bien sabido que los moderados no son nada partidarios de las discrepancias y las peleas internas, pues son percibidas como un síntoma de un partido divido y poco preparado para gobernar.

En definitiva, es probable que durante los próximos meses veamos como la coyuntura política deja de cebarse con el PSOE. Entre otras cuestiones, los próximos meses estarán marcados tanto por los previsibles recortes sociales a manos de los gobiernos regionales del PP como por la renovada imagen generada por un nuevo líder socialista más amable a ojos de los votantes moderados. Y no hay duda de que ambas cuestiones pueden ser de gran ayuda para suavizar la inevitable derrota electoral del PSOE en próximas elecciones generales.

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